This week a high level US delegation led by two senior officials will hold talks with the Burmese military regime and detained Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi.
 
Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell and his deputy, Scot Marciel, will be in Burma on Tuesday and Wednesday to meet Burmese junta officials and opposition leaders, including executive members of the National League for Democracy (NLD) and ethnic leaders.
 
The visit is part of the Obama administration’s new policy of “direct engagement” with the regime and opposition leaders. As Kurt Campbell admitted during a congressional committee hearing in Washington, it will be a “long, difficult and painful” journey and “step-by-step process.” Braving reality, the US will be testing the water.
 
Any dramatic change or breakthrough is unlikely during this visit, which can nevertheless be seen as one small step toward a deeper engagement with Burma, if pragmatism is still alive among top Burmese leaders.
 
Likewise, Burmese inside and outside the country are cautiously waiting to see what effect the US engagement policy will have on the stubborn regime. They ask: will there be any meaningful outcome?
 
Suu Kyi herself is “keenly monitoring” the visit and is ready to exchange her views with the visiting US officials, according to her lawyers, who met her recently.
 
The US remains a supporter of the democracy movement. The Burmese opposition inside and outside the country continues to count on the US and many believe the US has a negotiating role to play in Burma’s political deadlock.
 
Now the regime itself expressed willingness to engage the US. The question is to what end and at what cost?
 
It is important to note that the regime leaders want to counterbalance China’s growing influence in Burma. Depending solely on China is not an option for the regime leaders, who in the past forged a “neutral foreign policy” and have received financial and military aid and training from the West, including the US.
 
The irony is that the regime leaders and Burmese who opposed military rule have one thing in common: they don’t want Burma heavily dependent on China, which has been seen as a strong ally of the brutal military regime since 1988.
 
It is doubtful, however, that the regime will deliver anything of substance in the political arena, even though it wants US support for its 2010 election process.

Kurt Campbell has said: “We will take a measured approach to the 2010 elections until we can assess the electoral conditions and know whether opposition and ethnic groups will be able to participate.”
 
Campbell then added: “We are skeptical that the elections will be either free or fair, but we will stress to the Burmese the conditions that we consider necessary for a credible electoral process.”
 
It is highly unlikely that the regime will agree to Washington’s request for inclusive, free and fair elections and the release of all 2,000 political prisoners, including Suu Kyi. If it does, it can be considered a meaningful move and the US will then no doubt ease its sanctions.
 
The manipulative regime leaders have made small token gestures in advance of Campbell’s visit and the upcoming summit meeting between the US and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) in Singapore.
 
Last week, at the Asean summit in Thailand, Prime Minister Gen Thein Sein said that Suu Kyi had a “role to play” in the country’s national reconciliation efforts and in reaching a political resolution.
 
After the regime successfully extended her detention period after the mockery of a trial, Suu Kyi met with Labor Minister Aung Kyi, the junta’s liaison officer. It was their second meeting since Suu Kyi sent a letter to Snr Gen Than Shwe expressing a desire to work together with the regime to help lift sanctions.
 
Suu Kyi was also allowed to meet with diplomats from the US, Britain and Australia to discuss their countries’ sanctions policies.
 
The British ambassador, Andrew Heyn, said: “It was clear that this was a fact-finding exercise and that she had not yet reached a policy position.”
 
The ambassador said Suu Kyi wanted to know more about what sanctions are in place, what led to the measures being imposed and whether any assessment had been made of the impact of sanctions on the ground.

Heyn said: “We would also be encouraged if the regime permitted her to meet her party members, and a broader range of Burmese and international interlocutors.” But the regime has so far denied Suu Kyi’s request to meet her top executive party members—employing its “divide and rule” strategy, effectively cutting off body and head.