Tension between the Burmese military and the ethnic ceasefire militias has been rising along the Sino-Burmese border in recent months.

The latest episode occurred on Monday, when junta troops moved against the leader of the Kokang ceasefire group known as the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) in the Lao Kai area in northern Shan State.

Kokang leader Pheung Kya-shin escaped arrest by Burmese troops who were looking for illegal drugs in his home, fleeing with his followers. Pheung Kya-shin, also known as Peng Jiasheng, negotiated the ceasefire agreement between the MNDAA and the regime in 1989.

The main reason for the increased tension has been the regime’s adamant demand for ceasefire groups to transform their militias into border guard forces, and the ceasefire groups’ steadfast refusal to comply.

In April 2009, the regime told ceasefire groups about their plan to transform the ceasefire militias into a border guard force.

Under the new scheme, each border guard battalion would have 326 troops, with 30 soldiers from the Burmese army, including one of three commanding officers, who would take charge of administration. The border guard battalions would only be located in the territory of the ceasefire groups, and their members would receive the same pay as regular Burmese soldiers.

Large and powerful ethnic armed groups, like the Kachin, Wa and Kokang based along the Sino-Burmese border, have refused to accept the order, but smaller, weaker groups are more likely to agree.

Understandably, the ceasefire groups want to maintain their independent armed forces to control their own territories and enjoy self-determination.

Analysts predict that the regime’s next target will be the Wa. The United Wa State Party’s (UWSP) opposition to the junta’s proposal has lead to heightened tensions and speculation about a renewal of armed conflict.

However, the Wa army has 20,000 soldiers and the regime is unlikely to risk fighting on the Chinese border. Chinese officials who are sympathetic to ethnic groups on the border have warned the Burmese not to initiate military conflict in the area.

As in the case of the Kokang group, whose new leaders are likely to be more pliant to Burmese military demands in the absence of Pheung Kya-shin, it is likely that the regime will wait for the Wa leadership to weaken.

In the south, the regime employed a divide and rule strategy to defeat the Karen National Union. The ongoing internal conflicts and infighting among Karen groups seriously weakened the once formidable Karen forces.

The ethnic armed groups in the north are not united enough to confront the regime, nor have they shown a clear political vision for the future of Burma. In the past, they expressed a desire for a federal union and sent representatives to the military-sponsored National Convention to seek amendments to the constitution, but the regime rejected their proposals.

Like the Burmese military dictators, the leaders of the ethnic groups in the north are feudal warlords who are anything but democratic. Making matters worse, the Wa and Kokang leaders are renowned for their involvement in the drug trade.

The US has blacklisted many of their leaders. In 2005, the US Department of Justice announced the indictment of eight UWSP leaders, including Chairman Bao You Chang.

Hostile attitudes have hardened and preparations for an offensive on the Wa and Kokang groups have heightened since US Senator Jim Webb, who advocates engagement with the regime, visited Burma in mid-August.

The regime knows that fighting against notorious drug lords would gain the sympathy if not blessing of the US. Ironically, it is the same regime that previously turned a blind eye on the drug trade in the north, even allowing Wa and Kokang leaders to establish businesses in Burma to launder drug money.

Resolving the status of ethnic groups in the political structure of Burma is an important issue that requires a durable political solution. Meanwhile, maintaining peace in Burma is paramount, but the regime’s recent actions against the Kokang and other ethnic groups along the border can only increase distrust and exacerbate tensions.