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Obama Likely to Lean on Indonesia for Burma Help
By NEHGINPAO KIPGEN Friday, March 27, 2009


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In less than 100 days in the White House, President Barack Obama's foreign policies have either been spelled out or are under review. The administration is reviewing its Burma policy, looking at ways to engage the Burmese military junta.

Reaching out to Indonesia is one option that Washington is likely to consider. Indonesia is the only Southeast Asian country that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited during her first overseas trip in February.

During their telephone conversation on March 13, President Obama and Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono discussed how to make progress on democracy and human rights in Burma. The conversation took place just a few days before the Burmese Prime Minister Thein Sein's maiden visit to Jakarta since taking office in 2007.

Some good reasons why Obama is likely to lean toward Indonesia are: first, Indonesia is a country that has transitioned from military rule to democracy; second, Indonesia is the largest country is Southeast Asia and an influential member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, where Burma is also a member; third, by working together with the world's largest Muslim-majority nation, Obama wants to send a message to the Muslim world that America is not its enemy; fourth, Obama has a personal connection to Indonesia, where he lived for four years.

The Obama administration's possible policy shift on Burma was evidenced by a comment Hillary Clinton made in Jakarta: "Clearly, the path we have taken in imposing sanctions hasn't influenced the Burmese junta."

Washington is likely to ask Jakarta to either mediate talks between the military junta and the opposition, or Washington may engage the military junta through Jakarta. This initiative could end up with Indonesia playing a pivotal role in a "six-party talks" model that was used in the North-Korean nuclear program negotiations.

Like Burma, Indonesia was under military rule for more than three decades (1967 to 1998) under the then President Suharto. With its own experiences of a successful transition to democracy, Jakarta is studying the possibility of a dual-function government in which Burmese military officers and civilians are each given roles in the transition from dictatorship to democracy.

The Indonesian model of democratic transition is something the Burmese military junta has considered for quite sometime. In an interview with the Singapore Straits Times newspaper in 2008, the United Nations special envoy to Burma, Ibrahim Gambari, said, "I can reveal to you that the junta has been looking for a model closer to Indonesia where there was a transition from military to civilian rule and ultimately to democracy."

Meanwhile, the leaders of the State Peace and Development Council are anticipating a conciliatory tone from Washington. It, indeed, surprised many observers when junta chief Than Shwe sent a congratulatory message to Barack Obama on his election and inauguration, which many did not expect.

For more than two decades, the American government has punished the Burmese military junta through economic sanctions, primarily for its human rights violations and for not honoring the mandate of the 1990 general elections, in which Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy party won in a landslide, only to be ignored by the military who refused to honor the election results.

During their meeting on March 16, President Yudhoyono and Burmese Prime Minister Thein Sein discussed a number of issues, including Rohingya refugees and the planned 2010 election in Burma.

"The president emphasized the importance of a credible, transparent, fair and inclusive election process. He also said Myanmar should not just conduct elections, but most importantly quality elections," said Indonesian presidential spokesman Dino Patti Djalal.

The irony, however, is that even if there is a "transparent and fair" election as suggested by President Yudhoyono, there is already a flaw in the constitution itself. For example, 25 percent of the seats in both houses of the parliament are reserved for the military and any amendment to the constitution would require more than 75 percent votes. This means that no amendment will happen without the support of the military.

If the military goes ahead with its roadmap without reviewing the constitution, the country will head for another stage of internal problems with lingering dissenting views. Any attempt to find a long-term solution to the ethno-political problems must include the participation of different ethnic nationalities.

The Obama administration should not consider lifting economic sanctions immediately before seeing any tangible progress on the ground. Benchmarks, including the release of political prisoners and making the democratization process inclusive, should be set for lifting sanctions.



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plan B Wrote:
31/03/2009
I hope Obama is not playing Pontius Pilate using the Indonesian President as the symbolic hand-washing bowl—not doing anything under the pretext that I have done what I can. If that is so, Obama: A Plague be on both of your houses. Yours and those who maintain the status quo and the juntas.

Than Naing Wrote:
29/03/2009
Sanctions were imposed as a sign of solidarity with the pro-democracy movement in Burma. No one really expected it to work. It would be foolish to even think sanctions alone would bring down a regime as ruthless as the SPDC. They couldn't care less what happens to the rest of the population as long as their hold on power is secure and their opulent life style is maintained.

The situation in Burma will continue to be this way until some influential countries like the US, China or EU step up to the plate and seriously enforce this carrot and stick approach and follow through with it.

Burmese people are tired of empty rhetoric and inaction. Let's see some creative approach that produces tangible results.

shokhothang haokip Wrote:
29/03/2009
I think it is a well written piece by a well informed person on the subject.

Zaw Win Wrote:
28/03/2009
This kind of mentality has made the Burmese people sit in teashops for two decades hoping for some foreign powers to come with a golden key to free all the prisoners and give democracy to them.

Nobody is coming.

Indonesia has nothing that can influence the junta. Unless and until Osama and the Jihadis decide to open shop in Yangon or Arakan, no stick is coming from the US. Yes, the US and other nations may pressure both the junta and the opposition to come to an agreement to participate in the election, which the junta will be very happy to accommodate.

The election will be held with or without the main opposition groups, and whenever the resultant government does anything against the will of junta, the military will take over and it will be back to square one again.

Every nation needs its military. Millions of Burmese need only to remove a few of these semi-literate generals only. That is if they want real democracy. It is about time the NLD, students, etc., considered all options before its too late.

aung ko Wrote:
28/03/2009
Are you kidding? Do we have to wait for Obama's administration for reform in Burma? Everyone, even a child, knows we will get nothing from Obama for the Burma issue. It is a stupid and childish thought that because Obama's grandfather was in Burma during World War II, we will have to wait and see if this connection will matter to Obama in Burma's affairs.

Finally, I wonder if this is an analytical article. Your writing in English is good, but your thinking is childish. I think only publications which don't know about Burma could print your article. I am surprised the Irrawaddy's editors published your article.

George Than Setkyar Heine Wrote:
28/03/2009
Lifting sanctions is not the problem today.
The people of Burma have already entrusted the NLD led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to shape their destiny via an overwhelming mandate (82%)since May 27, 1990.

Hence, Than Shwe has no right, much less authority, to substitute the 1990 election results with the outcome of another election. The best bet for him is to honor the 1990 election results only.

Today's existing political deadlock and economic woes in the country are the culmination of the military junta's self-serving (robbing the country of its natural resources) policies and hunger for power.

Their 7-step road map will lead the country to nowhere other than subjecting the nation to eternal military dynastic rule, as per the military drawn constitution.

And the 2010 elections to be held under the auspices of Than Shwe's regime would also amount to no more than a farce, given the ruling military's track record of nil transparency and accountability.








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