Dissidents Expect Little from US Visit

Most Burmese dissidents, activists and ethnic leaders believe the visit of a US delegation to Burma is positive, but do not expect any major political concessions on the part of the Burmese military regime to come from the talks.

Several dissidents have voiced their opinions, generally saying that the visit may be beneficial to the regime, but not to Burma’s opposition groups. 

The US delegation, led by Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell, arrived on Tuesday morning in Burma’s capital, Naypyidaw, where it met with Burmese government officials.

According to diplomatic sources, Campbell is accompanied by Deputy Assistant Secretary for Southeast Asia Scot Marciel, the US State Department’s Burma Officer Laura Scheible and another State Department officer.

On Wednesday, the delegation will fly to Rangoon to meet representatives of various ethnic groups and leaders of the opposition National League for Democracy, including Aung San Suu Kyi. 

One of the invited ethnic leaders, Aye Tha Aung, the chairman of the Arakan League for Democracy, said he hopes the US representatives learn more about the political landscape of Burma as they meet with representatives of the regime, the opposition and the ethnic groups.  

“However, I am not hopeful of political improvement, because the regime refuses to hold tripartite dialogue [between the junta, the opposition political parties and the ethnic groups],” he said.

Political improvement will only come when there is a tripartite dialogue, and it doesn’t matter what the US does,” he said, adding that the Burmese regime only seeks better relations with the US as a means to lift economic sanctions. 

Regional human rights activist Debbie Stothard, who is the coordinator of Altsean-Burma, said, “This trip is going to be the first real test of the new US policy … We want to see a genuine outcome.”  

She said that an improvement in Burma’s political climate can only be measured by three criteria: the unconditional release of political prisoners, including Suu Kyi; an end to military conflict, war crimes and crimes against ethnic minorities; and a move toward tripartite dialogue.  

Hla Ngwe, the joint secretary (1) of the Karen National Union, said, “If the US delegation is allowed by the junta to hear and discuss the demands of ethnic groups, dissidents and opposition parties, then a degree of success may be measured.

However, he said he doubted whether the talks would be productive as key government decision-maker Snr-Gen Than Shwe will miss the meeting.

Speaking to The Irrawaddy on Tuesday, a Wa official in Wa capital Panghsang said he does not believe the US can persuade the Burmese regime of the need for a political process. He said the political conflict in Burma is a domestic problem that can only be solved by the parties involved.

“We all want peace and that’s what we hope for,” he said. “But so much depends on the will of the Burmese junta.”

Campbell’s delegation is the first occasion for the Obama administration to negotiate with the Burmese junta since it announced in September it would engage with the regime though continue to impose economic sanctions.