Will the Junta and Wa Compromise?

The Burmese military government has reportedly reached a provisional agreement with the United Wa State Army (UWSA) over the ethnic cease-fire militia’s role as a border guard force, according to several sources.

However, the sources said that while negotiations were ongoing, so were preparations for a military conflict between the two armies.

The junta has reportedly beefed up its forces in the area to a strength of 50 battalions while the UWSA, which has an estimated 25,000 fighters, is digging trenches and preparing defenses.

According to the sources, the Wa leaders would like to buy time to delay the decision on border guard forces. Some reports indicate that the Wa leadership has responded to the Burmese commanders that their troops are not yet ready to serve as border guards as they require additional training.

Some Burma analysts have predicted an all-out war between Burma’s two largest armies sooner or later. Some said the Wa will “fight to the death” while others are confident that a compromise will be reached.

It is widely acknowledged that China has been holding talks with both Burmese officials in Naypyidaw and Wa leaders in Panghsang, the Wa capital, in efforts to ease the crisis after the recent conflict with the Kokang army in northeastern Shan State. Beijing may also have weighed in on the issue of the Wa transforming its units to border guard forces under Burmese army command.

The Burmese military authorities had earlier set October as a deadline for the UWSA leadership to accept the regime’s “offer” of joining the regime’s border guard force plan.
On Saturday, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao discussed the issue of stability and peace along the Sino-Burmese border with his Burmese counterpart Gen Thein Sein during the 15th Asean Summit in Cha-am, central Thailand.

Wen told Thein Sein that Beijing “hopes that the Burmese regime will achieve stability, national reconciliation and development” in Burma, according to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Web site.

On October 19, the Burmese regime’s Secretary 1, Gen Tin Aung Myint Oo, flew to China on an official visit with a delegation. According to Xinhua news agency, China’s Vice-Premier Li Keqiang told Tin Aung Myint Oo: “China and Myanmar [Burma] should make efforts together to strengthen exchanges and cooperation, as well as safeguard stability on the border areas for the sake of the fundamental interests of the two peoples.”

China would like to see a compromise between the junta and the Wa, said Khuensai Jaiyen, the chief editor of the Chiang Mai-based Shan Herald Agency for News.

The UWSA and its military allies—the Mongla group, the Kokang militia and the New Democratic Army-Kachin—have also been in talks in Panghsang almost every day since Oct. 20 and plan to respond to Naypyidaw on the subject of border guard forces by the end of October, said Jaiyen.

Some observers said the UWSA and its allies might seek to compromise along the lines of the Kachin Independent Organization, which proposed transforming its battalions into units of an autonomous “Kachin Regional Guard Force” as opposed to a Burmese army-controlled border guard force.  

According to the Burmese military authorities’ demands, each border guard force will be made up of 326 soldiers, of which some 30 Burmese staff officers with significant roles in the command structure will be posted to each battalion.

David Mathieson, a Burma analyst for the New York-based Human Rights Watch, said, “If they [the junta and the UWSA] can resolve the issue peacefully and don’t return to conflict, that will be good for the civilians in this area.

“If there is fighting in Wa areas, the impact on civilians will be much greater,” he said.

The Thai National Security Council recently stated that the outbreak of hostilities between the Wa and Burmese government forces could force more than 200,000 refugees into northern Thailand’s Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai provinces.  

Some 37,000 Kokang refugees fled into China after fighting broke out in and around the Kokang capital, Laogai, near the Sino-Burmese border in late August.

Larry Jagan, a British journalist who follows Burmese issues, said that Than Shwe and his deputy, Maung Aye, are supreme nationalists who will find it very hard to allow an independent army on Burmese territory.

“There is a very strong potential for the Burmese army to launch an offensive against the Wa,” said Jagan.

The pretense for an attack on the Wa is likely to be based on the UWSA’s involvement in the drugs trade and illegal weapons factories, as well to counter the Wa’s perceived notions of building an independent state, according to Burma observers. 

The Wa have become synonymous with drug trafficking in recent years and stand accused by many sources of relying on the drugs trade to buy weapons.