Irrawaddy Division Surveyed about Referendum

One month ahead of the Burmese constitutional referendum due to be held on May 10, The Irrawaddy has conducted an opinion poll in Irrawaddy Division, which is the country’s rice bowl and one of the most populated areas in Burma.

The Irrawaddy made 50 cold calls to local people, including farmers, businessmen, civil servants, students, business owners, doctors and lawyers in several major townships, including Bassein, Hinthada and Bogalay. None of the interviewees were politicians or activists.

We asked them if they would vote “Yes” or “No” in the upcoming referendum on supporting the draft constitution. Then we asked why.  

In our opinion poll, 40 of the 50 respondents said “No” while 10 of them said they didn’t want to answer or that they didn’t know. No one said “Yes” to the question.

None of the respondents had read the draft constitution—it was only made public on Wednesday, going on sale at government bookstores for 1,000 kyat a copy. 

A few defining factors emerged from our telephone survey—for example, most civil servants didn’t dare to say “Yes” or “No.” 

One civil servant from Dedaye Township said she had not yet decided which way to vote. However, she said that the media should understand her answer as she was a civil servant and couldn’t say anything about the constitutional referendum. Burmese civil servants are notoriously tightlipped and fearful of repercussions.

A doctor form Bassein General Hospital said he would vote “No” if the authorities offered a free and fair environment. He added that if the authorities threatened him, he would vote “Yes.”

A grocer from Bogalay responded: “If the government doesn’t punish its civil servants for being against the draft constitution, they are likely to vote ‘No.’ I personally will vote ‘No.’”

“I am sure that the most people from Bassein will vote ‘No,’” said a businessman in Bassein Township. “The people from the villages will vote against the government in retaliation for the violence during last September's demonstrations,” he said.

“Even my brother, a policeman, will vote ‘No’” he added. “Unless they prevent him for doing so.”

A retired person from Bassein said that open debate on the referendum is not happening. “The military government has not allowed critical political debate in our country,” he said. “I am not interested in what they wrote into the constitution—I will vote ‘No’ anyway.”

Other respondents were unsure. A businessman from Lemyethna Township told The Irrawaddy on Wednesday: “I don’t know what they wrote in the constitution. I didn’t even read about it in Myanmar Alin (a state-run newspaper). I don’t have any idea which way to vote.”

Myo Zaw, a young man from Bogalay Township, said that he was not ready to cast a vote in the forthcoming referendum. “I haven’t made up my mind,” he said. “I don’t understand what the constitution is for.

“I am not even sure if I will go to the polling station,” he added.

A doctor from Hinthada Township said that he would give vote “No” in the constitutional referendum, but he wouldn’t say why.

“I can’t say anything about the constitutional referendum,” said another doctor from the same town, before hanging up.

“This is a business! Don’t call me again!” said the owner of a Chinese restaurant in Hinthada Township before hanging up the phone abruptly. 

Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for democracy (NLD) and other pro-democracy groups are calling for a "No" vote, but have little time to campaign effectively.

Despite the calls from the NLD and other political dissidents to reject the constitution, Burma’s ruling junta announced that the referendum would go ahead on May 10.

* The Irrawaddy will report its findings from a continuing series of surveys on the referendum.